{"id":91355,"date":"2020-10-13T20:15:12","date_gmt":"2020-10-13T20:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.flad.pt\/polls-and-predictions-what-has-failed-and-what-do-we-need-to-learn-to-read-them-better\/"},"modified":"2020-10-14T09:18:59","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T09:18:59","slug":"polls-and-predictions-what-has-failed-and-what-do-we-need-to-learn-to-read-them-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.flad.pt\/en\/polls-and-predictions-what-has-failed-and-what-do-we-need-to-learn-to-read-them-better\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls and predictions: what has failed and what do we need to learn to read them better?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>What went wrong with the polls in 2016 that they didn&#8217;t predict Donald Trump&#8217;s victory and what should we know to better understand them in such an atypical year for American politics? See here the debate with Alan Abramowitz, Mary Stegmaier, with the moderation of Pedro Magellan and David Dinis.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><iframe title=\"FLAD\/SIC-Expresso: Como falharam as sondagens e o que precisamos de saber para as entender melhor?\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zC9J3UeDaEM?feature=oembed&#038;width=840&#038;height=1000&#038;discover=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>A debate over predictions and polls,<\/strong> a topic that gained particular relevance after the 2016 election, when almost all polls pointed to a clear and comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton, but the winner would eventually be Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>To dissect these results and understand what has failed, or what we do not understand in the numbers presented to us (as well as the impact of the pandemic and the evolution of the economy), we invited two renowned American experts in the field of predictions and electoral behavior: <a href=\"https:\/\/news.emory.edu\/tags\/expert\/alan_abramowitz\/index.html\">Alan Abramowitz<\/a>, Political Scientist at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emory.edu\/home\/index.html\">Emory University in<\/a> Atlanta; and <a href=\"https:\/\/politicalscience.missouri.edu\/people\/stegmaier\">Mary Stegmaier<\/a>, Political Scientist at <a href=\"https:\/\/truman.missouri.edu\/\">Truman School of Public Affairs,<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/missouri.edu\/\">from the University of Missouri.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The debate was moderated by Pedro Magalh\u00e3es, principal investigator of<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ics.ulisboa.pt\/\"> the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon<\/a> and also an expert in these areas, and the journalist David Dinis, deputy director of the weekly Expresso.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>See here the first of the two debates of the partnership between FLAD and SIC-Expresso, with Alan Abramowitz, Mary Stegmaier, Pedro Magalh\u00e3es and David Dinis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":91341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[618,639],"tags":[620,637],"ppma_author":[],"class_list":["post-91355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-elections-2020","category-electoral-system","tag-us-elections","tag-elections-2020"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polls and predictions: what has failed and what do we need to learn to read them better? - FLAD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Watch the first of the two debates of the partnership between FLAD and SIC-Expresso, with Alan Abramowitz, Mary 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